So far this weather year in California has
been an epic one. We have gone from
devastating drought conditions to devastating flooding and mudslides due to
what the weather folks at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association) have been calling the "Atmospheric
Rivers" of rain that the Muddy-Golden State has thus received this
year. Like Christopher Columbus trying
to discover a route to the East Indies by sailing west and in the spirit of discovery,
here's what I have discovered. I have
discovered that for all of our modern day toys and technology (i.e. satellites,
computer programs, and piles and piles of stored data) at the disposal of
weather prognosticators around the world, I am finding their accuracy rate to
be more on par with Punxsutawney Phil
and his 50-50 chance at 6 more
weeks of winter. Rodent jokes aside, as a farmer I
must heavily rely on weather forecasts in order to help do my job, much in the
way that stock brokers rely on economic forecasts to do theirs. But before you
start into the whole "Global Warming", "Global Cooling",
"Climate Change", "we're killing all the fairy shrimp and polar
bears" argument, and how it's now so much harder to predict the weather,
let me just say..."I get it." Sure,
the weather patterns on the planet have changed, and will continue to change (
just like they have been doing since the earth started spinning), however,
could we please try to keep the weather forecasts in the same "ball
park"?
In 2015 I kept reading story after story about the
"Godzilla-El Nino" that was supposed to materialize, bringing much
needed rainfall to California. But in
the end, Godzilla looked more like the Gieco gecko and we ended with a less
than average rainfall total for the year...bummer. Then, this past summer I was once again feeling
optimistic by NOAA's "crystal ball" forecast of a winter that
included another "El Nino" weather pattern. Then, the weather Gods started to back
off on their prediction of an "El
Nino" year. By September-October,
the EXACT OPPOSITE was predicted. I was
reading stories from all the weather outlets (as well as the Old Farmer's
Almanac) how we were expecting a
"La Nina" weather year, with less than average rain and much colder temperatures.
Once again, not so good. So, like any
good farmer, I prepared for a La Nina winter, fully expecting less rain, less
snow in the mountains, and colder temperatures.
Then something strange started to happen...it began to rain on the
valley floor, and snow up in the mountains, yay! Then it kept raining...and raining, and
raining. A few weeks of rain later,
there were now rumors of the rainfall accumulations actually filling once dry lakes
and reservoirs. Eventually I began
hearing the term "drought buster" being thrown around on the news,
which brought much delight and warm feelings, to most Californians, yay again. A few more weeks go by, it's still raining,
and now we hear about lakes and reservoirs and dams being filled to
capacity...whoa..wait, what?!? Then there was the Oroville Dam situation. Will the emergency spillway collapse and
cause major flooding in the Northern California area? Stay tuned. Following that, we had the major, 24 hour, record
breaking rainfall in Southern California, leading to deaths, flooding, downed
power lines, a 40 foot sinkhole and mudslides! And the rainy season isn't over
yet!
Now I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth...and believe me when I
say, I am truly grateful for the
water. But how in the world were the
forecasters so far off base with their prediction? The term "not even
close" doesn't even begin to cover how wrong the weather gurus were on
this one. In the end I guess one could say that with his trusty sextant and map
of the stars, Columbus was a little closer to the mark...for at least he found
land.
Thanks for
reading. I'll see you in the groves.
Farmer Tony
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